The CIA has alerted several Mediterranean nations about a possible imminent Russian operation, as reported by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo on 24 September. American intelligence indicates that the plan may involve drones launched from Russian ships disguised as commercial vessels, targeting Spain, Italy, and France.
The drones in question, known as Gerbera, are smaller and lighter than the more devastating Shahed or Geran drones currently causing destruction in Ukraine. A merchant ship could carry several Gerberas, which might take between one and two hours to reach their targets on the Italian, Spanish, or French coasts. However, the drones might not deliver significant payloads, with the intention likely being to execute surprise attacks or cause minor damage, according to Lithuanian officials.
French President Emmanuel Macron has countered this report, stating he is unaware of any such Russian plans, claiming the CIA has not informed France of any potential attack.
Experts have raised concerns about the ambiguous nature of these revelations. Mark Lacy, a specialist in hybrid warfare at Lancaster University, suggested that Russia’s announcement could be seen as a manipulative tactic, aimed at creating confusion and psychological tension rather than actual intent to launch an attack. He noted that sowing doubt could be more effective than direct action, serving Russian interests.
Mario Baumann of the German Council on Foreign Relations believes a potential Russian attack in the Mediterranean is “absolutely possible.” He noted that while previous attacks have focused on northern and central Europe, the whole continent, including the Mediterranean nations, is vulnerable.
Drones could effectively incite paranoia, especially with major elections occurring in France and Spain in 2027, as noted by Christian Kaunert from the University of South Wales. The aim is to generate fear, potentially influencing voters’ behaviour in these upcoming elections. Moscow, with its recent actions, might thus see an opportunity to advance its interests in Southern Europe during this politically charged period.
Access to the Mediterranean is crucial for Russia. Although it faces restrictions due to its war in Ukraine, Russia may still find ways to launch operations, possibly through organised crime networks. In previous instances, there have been suggestions of Russian agents orchestrating violence in Southern Europe, such as the assassination of Russian defector Maxime Kouzminov in Spain.
This evolving situation highlights the increasing tensions in the region and the potential for a new phase in the ongoing struggles between Russia and Western powers.
