Madagascar on Saturday marks one year since military leader Michael Randrianirina assumed power after weeks of protests led by young activists that resulted in the ousting of President Andry Rajoelina. Over the past year, ties with Russia have strengthened, especially through military cooperation and arms deliveries, as researchers note Moscow’s interest in securing a strategic port in the Indian Ocean. However, many of the political reforms demanded by demonstrators remain unaddressed.
Randrianirina was sworn in on 17 October 2025, following protests that demanded access to water and electricity, as well as greater justice and transparency. Russia moved quickly to establish relations, with Randrianirina meeting its ambassador just four days after taking office.
An investigation by All Eyes On Wagner, which tracks Russian influence, revealed the rapid establishment of military, political, and economic networks in Madagascar since Randrianirina’s inauguration. “Madagascar has historical ties with Russia,” said Lou Osborn, a co-author of the report, adding that the pace at which Russian military intelligence has expanded in the country is notable.
On 20 December 2025, two months after taking office, Randrianirina welcomed a flight of Russian military personnel, including General Andrey Averyanov, linked to the paramilitary group Africa Corps. In the following months, Madagascar received military equipment, presented as donations, including helicopters and drones.
The relationship has further developed with African Initiative, a Russian news agency that has targeted the youth through events and support for local media, promoting favourable coverage of Russian-Malagasy relations.
The investigation also highlighted the resurgence of some political figures from the previous regime, suggesting a shift towards opportunism in their ties with Russia. National Assembly speaker Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko and Prime Minister Mamitiana Rajaonarison are among those noted for their pro-Russian stances.
Madagascar, located at the entrance to the Mozambique Channel, offers strategic access to vital shipping routes in the Indian Ocean. The port of Antsiranana, which a Russian delegation visited in April, is regarded as a significant site for future collaboration, including a new economic zone for fuel storage.
While the military and economic interest grows, concerns linger about the situation for ordinary Malagasies. In recent months, the new government has faced accusations of suppressing dissent, particularly among the youth activists who sparked the protests. Political scientist Ketakandriana Rafitoson remarked that although there has been a political change, many practices remain unchanged. She stressed the need for genuine reform and emphasised that while Gen Z has become a political force, their influence over decision-making remains limited.
