Partial results from Latvia’s parliamentary election indicate that Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centre-right United List party is leading with 35.8 per cent of the vote, with over half counted. This suggests that the country will continue its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian stance.
However, populist parties also made gains during the campaign, which was marked by concerns over Russia and the rising cost of living. Kulbergs remarked, “It’s not the end still, but it’s higher than expected,” signifying that voters desire change, which he associates with economic growth and a brighter future for Latvian children. Kulbergs became prime minister just last May.
His coalition is unlikely to remain intact as one partner, the Union of Greens and Farmers, hovered just above the five per cent threshold to enter parliament, securing 5.1 per cent of the vote. Other coalition parties suggest that Kulbergs will need to create a new ruling coalition.
While exit polls indicated a lead for Kulbergs, hesitance among voters to openly show support for radical parties may lead to stronger performances by populist groups than expected. Analyst Roberts Kits from LaSER predicted a significant rise for parties supported by the Russian-speaking electorate, including the Sovereign Power and Latvia First.
Populist parties have focused on domestic challenges like the cost of living, gaining traction as security issues dominate Latvia’s political landscape. Sovereign Power, viewed as pro-Russian, reportedly received 11 per cent of the vote but is unlikely to enter government, as major parties have dismissed working with it. Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, came in second with 13.4 per cent and may prove a more viable coalition partner.
The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party, garnered 6.6 per cent and advocates for enhanced social protections and ongoing support for Ukraine. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Latvia has heightened its defence spending to nearly five per cent of its GDP as it views Russia as its primary security threat. Most parties expected in the new parliament broadly support high military expenditure and continued aid to Ukraine.
Amid rising living costs, low wages, and healthcare stresses, the political debate remains focused on these pressing domestic issues. Voting patterns are also shifting among Latvia’s large Russian-speaking minority, which previously supported the Harmony party but is now leaning towards economic and social considerations.
Kulbergs emphasized the necessity of a robust economy and strong borders, stating, “That is the main task.” Preliminary official results are anticipated on Sunday, after which focus will shift to coalition talks, expected to be lengthy and complicated.
