US troops completed their withdrawal from remaining bases in Iraq on Wednesday, prompting concerns about a potential security vacuum. This pullout could embolden Iranian-backed militias and allow the Islamic State group to regain strength.
The decision, celebrated by Tehran and its allies, was initially agreed under US President Joe Biden in 2024 and executed by Donald Trump’s administration, despite ongoing hostilities with Iran, which exerts influence in Iraq through proxies.
This marks a significant moment in Iraq, 23 years after US-led forces ousted Saddam Hussein, a move that led to years of instability and the emergence of Islamic State. While many Iraqis view the US departure positively, some fear that Iraqi security forces—trained and funded by the US—remain ill-equipped to maintain order.
“The lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous,” said Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst.
US forces invaded Iraq in 2003, eventually withdrawing in 2011, only to return in 2014 to assist Iraqi forces in the fight against Islamic State, which peaked in its control of large parts of the country. Since then, the number of US casualties in Iraq has far surpassed those in the Afghanistan conflict.
Seven of the 18 US service personnel killed in this year’s conflict with Iran died in Iraq, the most recent being an army sergeant who died during a drone-controlled detonation near Erbil in July.
Iran asserts that the US withdrawal is a significant victory for its network of allied armed groups throughout the Middle East. However, analysts warn that this absence may encourage Iran’s proxies to seek greater influence over Iraqi policies.
Some Iraqi officials are concerned that the US exit could revitalise Islamic State fighters, who, despite losing their self-declared caliphate almost a decade ago, still maintain sleeper cells.
US troops have been crucial in providing the Iraqi military with intelligence and surveillance regarding Islamic State activities, raising questions about the preparedness of Iraq’s security forces for a future without Coalition support.
Retired Iraqi General Mohammed al-Jubouri emphasised the need for a robust alternative plan to counter potential threats, particularly from Islamic State attempts to acquire armed drones.
