The world has missed the chance to limit global warming to 1.5°C, now exceeding the threshold by over 0.1°C, according to a new United Nations report. The UN Environment Programme’s “Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return” reveals that decades of inadequate climate action have made it impossible to stay within the 1.5°C limit without a substantial overshoot.
To stay on the least damaging path assessed, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels. However, if countries fully implement their current climate pledges, emissions might only decrease by 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035.
Even in the best-case scenario, the report forecasts a rise in global temperatures to around 1.7°C to 1.8°C by mid-century before potentially falling below that level. There is about a 66% chance of peak warming staying within this range, and a 50% chance of returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100. Should current policies remain unchanged, temperatures could increase by 2.8°C by the century’s end, while full compliance with pledges would limit warming to 2.6°C. If all pledges and additional targets are met, warming would still rise to approximately 2.1°C.
“The opportunity to bridge the 1.5°C emissions gap with ‘no or limited’ overshoot has been lost,” the report states, stressing that decades of inadequate action have made larger exceedances of 1.5°C unavoidable.
The report highlights that every fraction of a degree of warming poses further risks of irreversible harm to ecosystems and human populations. Therefore, the focus must now shift to keeping global warming well below 2°C while minimising both the duration and intensity of overshoot, aiming for a credible path back to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
In 2025, global greenhouse gas emissions were estimated at 58.4 billion tonnes, slightly down from 2024. However, this figure is uncertain, making it difficult to ascertain whether emissions are decreasing or stabilising. Emissions from fossil fuels, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases are still on the rise, while methane emissions have remained steady. Decreased emissions from land use, aided by lower wildfire activity, have offset some of these increases.
The gap between countries’ climate commitments and expected emissions cuts has apparently narrowed but does not indicate stronger action. This shift is largely attributed to the removal of the United States’ national pledge from global calculations following its exit from the Paris Agreement, with forecasts now based on current US policies. Overall, there has been little real progress in aligning governmental actions with pledged commitments.
