Ethiopia is at a critical juncture after tensions between the government and the Tigray region erupted last week, raising concerns about a potential return to civil war. This escalation follows heightened instability in the Arabian Peninsula and threats related to the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The breakdown of dialogue stemming from the 2022 Pretoria agreement has left Ethiopia in a precarious position, often regarded as a ticking time bomb for the country, which is Africa’s second-most populous nation. Over the past four years, alliances have shifted markedly. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed no longer counts Eritrea as an ally and has accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels. Meanwhile, Sudan is entangled in its own civil conflict, with Abiy being linked to the UAE, known for arming RSF militias.
The pressing questions remain: who will intervene to avert a widespread civil war in Ethiopia, and how can regional conflict be prevented?
