A new report from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago warns that the ongoing Super El Niño could cause an additional 66,800 heat-related deaths across Africa’s Sahel over the next six months, with Nigeria expected to bear the brunt of these fatalities.
Research indicates that from June 2026 to February 2027, there could be 451,000 extra heat-related deaths globally due to the current El Niño. Nigeria may see 31,400 of these, followed by Sudan with 17,500, Niger and the Democratic Republic of Congo with around 10,000 each, and Chad with 7,900. South Africa is also among the top 50 countries predicted to experience significant heat-related fatalities, with an estimated 1,200 additional deaths during this period.
The lab forecasts that globally there will be 239,000 extra heat-related deaths between September and February, with an uncertainty of about 11,000. The report states that the continued presence of El Niño through spring 2027 could worsen these figures, as elevated temperatures and heat-related deaths may persist into mid-2027.
The report highlights that the Global South will be hardest hit by these heat increases. In South-East Asia alone, countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia could see an extra 19,400 deaths, while Indonesia may face 19,300. India is projected to have 15,800 additional deaths, and Brazil 13,300.
The Climate Impact Lab notes that deaths from extreme heat will compound the effects of droughts, wildfires, and flooding, which are expected as a result of the heat and shifting rainfall patterns. Global land temperatures are anticipated to be about 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, leading to 44% more extremely hot days than usual.
These extraordinary conditions mirror what climate projections suggest for the world in approximately 20 years. Researchers caution that El Niño is effectively thrusting current temperatures forward, leaving communities with little time to adapt and mitigate the impacts. The timing of additional deaths will vary by country; for instance, Nigeria might see about 15,400 extra heat-related fatalities from December to February, while Indonesia could face around 10,400 during the same timeframe.
These projections take into account temperature variations and excess mortality rates across 24,378 global regions, factoring in local climates and adaptability.
