Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc has taken a narrow lead in the election as the far-right party’s support has declined, with around 95% of districts counted. The Swedish Election Authority reported that the four opposition parties are projected to secure 176 of the 349 seats in parliament, the Riksdag, while the current conservative-led government and its allies are expected to win 173 seats.
Results will remain uncertain until early votes and overseas ballots are counted on Wednesday. If the left-leaning bloc wins but struggles to form a government due to ideological divides, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson could continue in office despite the opposition’s majority.
The Sweden Democrats have experienced an unexpected drop in support, losing three percentage points since the 2022 general election, falling from 20.5% to 17.5%. This marks their first loss in voter backing since entering parliament in 2010.
Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats retained first place with a 28.1% share, one of their lowest performances in over a century, complicating efforts to build a working majority.
Despite this setback, the Sweden Democrats remain a powerful presence in parliament, reflecting changing voter priorities. Political scientist Anders Sannerstedt noted that many voters previously backed the far right mainly for their stance on refugees, not necessarily agreeing with all their policies.
Even with diminished support, the Sweden Democrats maintain significant influence. The tightly divided legislature means any new government will face a fragile working margin, ensuring the party’s continued relevance in Swedish politics. Over the last decade, their demands for strict asylum policies, easier deportations, and tougher policing have been increasingly embraced by mainstream parties, shifting the political landscape to the right.
