The World Bank has predicted a 4.3% decline in the economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council nations this year, attributing the downturn to the ongoing impacts of the war in Iran on trade and business in the region.
In its latest regional update, released on Tuesday, the bank noted that rising oil prices have not offset the reduction in export volumes, which has negatively affected production and government revenues. In fact, Middle Eastern crude exports surpassed pre-war levels on 14 days in September, according to provisional data from Kpler, reported by Reuters. These shipments included oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz as well as alternative routes.
The World Bank’s forecast, which encompasses various sectors beyond oil, indicates that some gas deliveries are still occurring. On 2-3 October, four vessels carrying Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) were reported near Hormuz.
Additionally, Italian energy company Edison announced on 28 September that QatarEnergy had extended its force majeure notification until early December, impacting a total of 35 cargoes—around 4.6 billion cubic metres of gas destined for Italy’s Adriatic LNG terminal. Edison stated it had secured alternative supplies and could meet its customer commitments.
In air travel, passenger traffic for Middle Eastern airlines dropped by 14.6% in August compared to the previous year, according to the International Air Transport Association’s figures published on 30 September. Available seating capacity fell by 9.3%, leading to more empty seats. However, regional airlines have absorbed some passengers whose flights were cancelled by European carriers.
Aviation consultant Omar Hashmi mentioned that airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad are accommodating transit passengers and Gulf visitors. He also noted that longer flight routes increase fuel costs and alter flight timings due to closed airspace.
During a briefing in Doha, Qatar highlighted that the entire world is feeling the effects of the conflict, as diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran are ongoing. The World Bank warned that damaged infrastructure and postponed investments could hinder future growth even after immediate disruptions subside.
