El Niño is set to intensify significantly, peaking in December and potentially becoming one of the strongest events since at least 1950, according to the United Nations. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that this naturally occurring weather phenomenon will raise temperatures worldwide and exacerbate the effects of climate change.
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update notes that El Niño will bring above-average temperatures globally and alter rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and flooding in various regions. Typically occurring every two to seven years, El Niño usually lasts between nine to twelve months, alternating with its counterpart, La Niña.
The WMO has forecast that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach record levels between October and December, driven by this strengthening El Niño. “El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” said WMO chief Celeste Saulo, with nearly a 100% likelihood that it will last until February 2027.
Saulo explained that while El Niño does not generate new heat, it releases heat stored in the warm ocean. The recent index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6C above normal in June to 2.5C in August, with projections suggesting it could hit around 3.7C above normal in the coming months—surpassing the previous record of 2.6C set in 2015-2016.
This current El Niño is already impacting regions such as Central America, where drought is harming crops and wildlife. It has been linked to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record, with 2024 anticipated to break that record at approximately 1.55C above the pre-industrial average.
