Extreme weather and ongoing conflicts are jeopardising global food production and trade. Experts warn that a potential super El Niño could further disrupt planting and harvesting, exacerbating food insecurity for millions. The wars in Ukraine and Iran are also disrupting shipping routes and supply chains.
Shawn Arita, an Associate Research Professor at North Dakota State University, believes transport issues are more significant than supply problems. “The food does exist; the availability does exist. The main issue right now is that the movement is broken,” he said.
Arita described the Strait of Hormuz as “a fertiliser corridor,” vital for farmers worldwide. “Approximately a third of globally exported fertilisers, before 2026, came through Hormuz. We are seeing this reflected in supply and yield concerns, driving up cereal and grain prices and affecting the entire food system for major producers.”
He noted that high fertiliser and energy prices will continue to impact agricultural output. “When farmers’ profit margins are weak or often negative in the US and worldwide, this leads to reduced output, ultimately resulting in less food production globally.”
