Farmers in South Africa are preparing for a potentially strong El Niño season, but they are entering it with fuller dams, better soil moisture, and early summer rains, which provide some reassurance for the upcoming production season.
As of 5 October, dam levels were around 90%, significantly higher than the 60% reported during the same period before the 2015/16 drought, according to Malapane Thamaga, a senior economist with the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC). He noted that the 2015 drought was much longer, and conditions were less favourable at that time.
Soil moisture has improved following an extended rainy season that lasted until May 2026, with early rains in September and early October starting the 2026/27 production year. Thamaga explained that even snowfall in the highlands has contributed positively to soil moisture.
Current conditions could encourage farmers to take calculated risks with their planting and investments. “Clear communication about conditions leading up to the drought provides farmers with reassurance and helps them make better decisions,” Thamaga said.
He added that nearly all of South Africa’s commercial fruit orchards and vegetable-producing areas are irrigated, making higher water levels beneficial. Improved soil moisture is also enhancing pasture conditions, although only 20% of field crops are irrigated, meaning much depends on how the season progresses.
Despite being cautiously optimistic regarding farmers’ capacity to cope with potential adverse conditions, Thamaga warned that persistent bad weather could still impact grazing, putting livestock producers at risk. The NAMC noted that the impact of risks varies based on pasture management practices.
These issues were discussed during an El Niño preparedness roundtable in Pretoria this week, led by Wandile Sihlobo, the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land, with input from NAMC and Bayer. The roundtable highlighted forecasts predicting a strong El Niño in the 2026/27 summer production season, potentially impacting conditions earlier than anticipated.
